What Bellavia Does
Bellavia is a retirement and savings planning calculator that tests your withdrawal and savings strategies against every historical market period available. Instead of just projecting future returns or assuming fixed averages, it shows you how your plan would have performed across real bull markets, crashes, stagflation, and recoveries. It can handle data from academic sources such as Shiller and JST Macrohistory databases or your own market data.
About the Creator
Bellavia Research
C. Paris, PhD, is a founding member of Bellavia and writes on markets, risk, and the psychology of decision-making.
C. Paris is a quantitative finance professional with many years of experience in derivatives, model risk, and financial analysis. He holds a PhD in Mathematics with research interests in probability and financial mathematics, and has worked at major global banks. His career spans structured and pension products and quantitative risk analysis. He has led risk teams, developed financial models, and worked extensively with risk and compliance frameworks.
Methodology
Bellavia can use market data from a variety of data sources depending on customer configuration. Every simulation runs your model portfolio through actual sequences of stock returns, bond returns, and inflation — testing every overlapping historical window of your chosen retirement length. There are no assumed average returns and no hidden smoothing. This approach reveals how sequence-of-returns risk, inflation shocks, and prolonged drawdowns would have affected your plan in practice.
Try It
The retirement calculator is free to use with no account required. Enter your portfolio value, allocation, and withdrawal strategy to see how your plan holds up against history.
Open the Calculator →Get in Touch
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Contact Us →Bellavia is an educational tool for exploring historical portfolio outcomes. It does not provide personalized financial advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Consult a qualified financial professional before making investment decisions.