Teddy Roosevelt was busting trusts. Wall Street was about to break.
In 1902, America was booming — railroads, steel, oil. Progress felt unstoppable. An investor putting $100 into the market that year had every reason for optimism.
Over the next three decades, that optimism would be tested by the Panic of 1907, a world war that killed millions, the most reckless speculative bubble in American history, and the crash that ended it all.
The Panic of 1907 froze the banking system. World War I disrupted global trade and sent prices haywire. The Roaring Twenties brought a speculative mania that pushed stocks to absurd valuations. Then came October 1929 — and the worst market crash anyone had ever seen. By 1932, stocks had lost nearly 90% from their peak.
And yet.
After all of that — panics, a world war, a bubble, and the Great Crash — that $100 invested in 1902 was worth $507 by 1932. Five times the original investment. Adjusted for inflation, $280 in real purchasing power. A 5.6% annualized return through three decades of chaos.
This is the worst 30-year period in the entire US market record. And it still produced a positive return. The S&P 500 has never lost money over any 30-year window — not once in 120+ years of data. Even the worst timing in history rewarded patience.
Try this scenario in Bellavia's retirement calculator.