The portfolio lasted 29 years. It needed 30.
- The Great Crash. A $1,000,000 portfolio withdrawing $50,000/year (5%), adjusted for inflation, through the worst market collapse in modern history.
What stands out
The video tracks the portfolio's 30-year arc: the devastating early crash that wiped out nearly 90% of stock values, the painfully slow recovery through the 1930s, the wartime and postwar resurgence that kept the portfolio alive for nearly three decades, and the final decline in year 30 when the money ran out.
Remarkably, the portfolio almost survived. The post-Depression recovery, the wartime industrial boom, and 1950s prosperity were enough to sustain withdrawals for 29 years. But the early damage from the worst sequence of returns in market history created a hole that 25 years of good returns couldn't fully fill.
This is what sequence-of-returns risk looks like in its most brutal form. The difference between the 4% rule (which survived 1929) and the 5% rule (which didn't) is not just 1 percentage point — it's the difference between making it and running dry when you need your money most.
Test any withdrawal rate against 1929 on Bellavia.