Twenty-nine retirement cohorts. One animated race. 97% survived.
This visualisation puts every retirement starting year from 1871 to 1899 on the same chart, each withdrawing 5% of a $1,000,000 portfolio (60/40 stocks and bonds), adjusted for inflation, over 30 years.
What stands out
The Gilded Age was uniquely kind to retirees withdrawing at 5%. Deflation actually increased purchasing power — each year, $50,000 bought more, not less. Bonds paid strong real returns while consumer prices fell. Stock growth was explosive but sustained, driven by railroad expansion and the industrial revolution.
The 1877 cohort — who bought in after a banking panic — rode the recovery hardest, finishing with over $4.4 million. Only one cohort out of 29 ran dry.
No world wars, no oil shocks, no stagflation. Just relentless economic expansion. The 5% rule has a dismal record across most of history, but this era was the exception — and the video makes it visceral.
See the full backtest on Bellavia.
