Expert analysis on historical simulation, withdrawal strategies, and financial independence planning
Compare Bellavia's two guardrail withdrawal strategies — parametric (user-set 3%/5% bands) and canonical Guyton-Klinger 2006 (four fixed rules) — across 91 historical cohorts. Includes a …
Historical 90% and Monte Carlo 90% Are Not the Same Number Even when both say 90% success and displayed the same way, they do not …
You ran a retirement simulation and got two results. The historical backtest says 98.9% success. The Monte Carlo says 90.5%. Which one is right? Both. …
Discover why two retirees with identical $1 million portfolios can have vastly different outcomes. Historical analysis of sequence-of-returns risk explained.
The theories behind bellavia.app
Every retirement calculator, every "how much should I save" article, every financial planning spreadsheet uses the same formula. It's elegant. It's simple. And it hides …
We use Bellavia Analytics to calculate how much we need to save on a yearly basis for 30 years in order to have a very …
After years analyzing financial models, I searched for retirement planning tools. What I found was disappointing: oversimplified calculators or black boxes that said "trust us." …
Before you can stress-test your retirement plan against 100+ years of market history, you need to understand what you're actually testing. This guide breaks down …
Historical data gives us the only empirical laboratory we have. It tells us how portfolios behaved through war, depression, inflation, stagnation, and exuberance. Without these …
Looking to analyze your retirement portfolio with real historical data? While Bellavia.app includes US and UK market data from 1900-2020, you can do even better. …