Historical 90% and Monte Carlo 90% Are Not the Same Number
Historical 90% and Monte Carlo 90% Are Not the Same Number Even when both say 90% success and displayed the same way, they do not …
Retirement Planning Insights
Expert analysis on historical simulation, withdrawal strategies, and financial independence planning
Monte Carlo vs Historical Simulation: Why They Disagree and Why That's Fine
You ran a retirement simulation and got two results. The historical backtest says 98.9% success. The Monte Carlo says 90.5%. Which one is right? Both. …
Maximum Withdrawal Rate: 4%, 5%, or 6%? 150 Years of Evidence
The 1966 retiree could safely withdraw 3.9% annually (adjusting for inflation). The 1982 retiree could safely withdraw 11.8%, a full three times more spending power …
Sequence of Returns Risk Calculator: Early Years Matter Most
When planning for retirement, small differences in withdrawal rates can have dramatic impacts on portfolio longevity. This analysis explores what happens when you increase your …
1966: The Worst Year to Retire in 150 Years (And Three Other Crisis Cohorts)
1966 was worse than 1929. We tested how the same $1M portfolio performed starting in four of history's riskiest retirement years. Two failed completely. Two …
How to Upload JST Macrohistory Data to Bellavia
A step-by-step guide to accessing and formatting the Jordà-Schularick-Taylor Macrohistory Database for use in Bellavia's retirement planning simulations. This comprehensive dataset spans 1870-2020 and includes …
How to Use Shiller Data (ie_data.csv) for Retirement Backtesting
Looking to use the renowned Robert Shiller data for your retirement planning simulations? While Bellavia comes with built-in US and UK market data from 1900-2020, …
Historical Backtesting vs Monte Carlo in Retirement Planning
Historical data gives us the only empirical laboratory we have. It tells us how portfolios behaved through war, depression, inflation, stagnation, and exuberance. Without these …
The Ultimate Guide to Historical Market Data for Financial Planning
Looking to analyze your retirement portfolio with real historical data? While Bellavia.app includes US and UK market data from 1900-2020, you can do even better. …